A lot of it is also trust. Spanberger earned that trust from independents and moderate Republicans, getting a ton of crossover votes. Not by pandering, but by doing the work and creating a record of how she would govern. Almost every county in the Commonwealth trended blue. You don’t get that when rural voters are afraid of what you might do.
From her victory speech,
“I also know that her supporters are disappointed today — and to those Virginians who did not vote for me — I want you to know that my goal and intent is to serve all Virginians and that means I will listen to you. I will work for and with you. That is the approach I’ve taken throughout my whole career. I have worked with anyone and everyone — regardless of political party — to deliver results for the people that I serve.
That’s because I believe in this idea: that there is so much more that unites us as Virginians and as Americans than divides us. I know in my heart that we can unite for Virginia’s future and we can set an example for the rest of the nation.
Our founders understood this from the very beginning. They didn’t choose to call Virginia a “Commonwealth” by accident. They chose it to signify that our government would be based on the power of the people united for a common good. Not for a political party. Not for a President. Not for a monarch. But for a common good. Together.”
Look, what Jay Jones said was definitely bad, but when you have elected officials like Sen Mike Lee making fun of the attack on Paul Pelosi and Rep Andy Ogles tweeting gifs of the 9/11 attacks to make fun of Zohran, can you blame voters for not really caring?
Thanks for calling a spade a spade Kelsey. Character does matter. We have to do better on all sides. If Trump is the threat I believe him to be we have to be better.
The Jay Jones commentary is dumb. He didn't say anything about shooting any kids. The text messages are bad, but there's no reason to lie about it.
And what needs to be worked out intellectually is the culture of political violence America already has to solve problems. There is an old classically liberal problem about the state's monopoly on violence, tyrannical state violence, and violent rhetoric. The distinction here you're drawing is rather arbitrary compared to the violence we see on TV every day. Jones' win says that it doesn't bother people anymore because the social contract is being shredded.
Per Coyne, Jones did say that he wished his opponents kids would die to change his mind about issues, presumably gun control. The published texts are compatible with that claim. Best of my knowledge, he has not denied it.
Jones trailed Spanberger by over 8 points. That’s a lot of gettable voters he didn’t get. If we were in a Hailey administration without Doge and a shutdown, he would have lost.
That's simply not true, it was not true, and you don't have to defend it. You're asking to prove a negative based on multiple hypotheticals you made up in your head.
Again, the issue is liberals relationship to violence, and how horrible rhetoric can be said as long as it has the *astericks that the state has done it is fine. This sort of hypocrisy about language policing while endorsing many of our existing violent systems like actual policing is why a lot of potential voters have come to the conclusion both parties are the same.
He repeatedly and emphatically apologized. Maybe that shouldn’t matter given the nature of the texts, and he got caught going 114 mph, which seems bad for a state’s top cop.
Yes the right talking a lot about trans issues is a flop. As was the even bigger flop of the left trying to institutionalize their views. Most voters want both sides to shut up about it.
I do wonder if trans issues were a flop precisely because there has been so much ground ceded on that issue by pro-trans groups in the past few years that they don't feel like a pressing issue to a lot of voters anymore.
Kelsey wishing Jay Jones lost is extraordinarily goofy. Do you remember how obnoxious twitter communists were when they were swearing up and down about not voting for Biden? This is infinitely pettier than that.
When she says that he is less likely to 'entertain Trumpy abuses of federal power', the conversation should stop there. Donald Trump is a fascist insurrectionist; opposing him matters infinitely more than one dem being foul-mouthed.
I don't say this as a hater, btw: Kelsey's a good writer! Her take just struck me as PROFOUNDLY un-serious, especially for a liberal.
The assumption seems to be that Democrats did so well last night purely because of higher enthusiasm and turnout, but how sure are we of this? How do we know how much of the swing from 2024 was due to turnout vs. persuasion?
Pollsters knew about the fact that Democrats are more likely to turnout and presumably controlled for that, and yet the polls still really underestimated Democrats. Is it possible that pollsters, in reaction to previous misses that underestimated Republicans, are now overestimating Trump’s approval and Republicans’ generic ballot numbers with the general public? I haven’t crunched the numbers, but the swings in Virginia and New Jersey seem much larger than you’d have expected based purely on turnout differentials.
Sure, I’m not denying turnout partially explains it, but I’m skeptical it’s most or all of the story given how large these swings were. Democrats were also more likely to turnout in 2021 and performed far worse in these states.
We saw big swings for Democrats in SE Virginia and New Jersey as well, which aren’t as affected by DOGE and the shutdown, so I don’t think that explains much of the swing on its own (maybe a couple points statewide in Virginia).
Hampton Roads, aka southeastern Virginia, is home to an enormous number of military bases and government contractors that were directly affected by Doge and the shutdown. Norfolk Naval Station is just one example of MANY.
Virginia has the second highest percentage of government employees, the second highest percentage of active military, the second highest percentage of veterans at 9%, the largest share of government contract dollars, etc.
That’s good for a whole lot more than a couple of points.
And again, we also saw big swings in New Jersey, that’s my broader point. You can’t explain away last night as just local factors plus turnout (at least, I’d want to see rigorous number crunching show that is the case before believing it). I do think this shows Trump and Republicans really are broadly unpopular, and *possibly* more unpopular than polls currently suggest.
Lakshya was attributing everything to turnout, and I think that’s at least not obviously true. We should be open to the idea that there really is persuasion going on.
This is disqualifying for a legitimate moderate left publication. This makes me want to stop reading. What the person does in office is always more important than meaningless personal behavior. If the point is that the R in this race is not very different, ok, make that point. Otherwise, please stop.
In the face of 2025 Donald Trump, it doesn't matter. American democracy is currently at the "masked gestapo hauling minorities off the street at their discretion" stage. The choice between 'Guy who would be friendly to Trump's legal abuses' and 'literally any other type of guy' is the second, ALWAYS the second.
I think we have the best chance against Donald Trump by having some standards that include "do not tell a Republican legislator that you wish death on your opponents' children" and also "do not drive 116 MPH and then cheat on the community service you were sentenced to". Jones should've been replaced with a Dem who hadn't said and done that stuff.
I don't mean to be aggressive but why shift the conversation from a debate about values to electoralism? You said it yourself here:
> But his comments about his opponents were genuinely horrendous, and I think they did a lot of damage to Americans’ ability to trust that almost no one literally wants to kill each other over our political differences — a shared value on which a functional democracy must rest. **That cause is a lot more important to me than the Virginia AG**
I don't disagree that Jones should have been replaced, but that's not what you said. You said you wished he had lost. That is the sentiment I think is unserious.
I’m saying if a random text is more important than the likely policy differences between a typical D and R as a state Attorney General, I’d say that makes a disturbing statement.
One under-the-radar mayoral race to be excited about: Miami, Florida.
It’s headed to a runoff, but the frontrunner, Eileen Higgins, is someone this publication should be genuinely excited about.
Higgins first won office in 2018 in a major upset, taking a runoff in a district that includes Little Havana against a well-connected GOP establishment figure.
She’s a real housing + transportation wonk. Because of her service on the county Commission, Dade County has seen tens of thousands of new housing units built on publicly owned land. She’s pushed to clear underutilized land around rail stations to allow Hudson Yards-scaled developments, secured federal funding for new rail lines, and generally pushes a "maximum YIMBY" vision, with high-rises around rail lines modeled after cities like Vancouver, Singapore, and Hong Kong.
She's a technocrat, an engineer by training, and a moderate who isn't an establishmentarian.
If she wins, she could become a real rising star: Florida’s answer to Matt Mahan or Daniel Lurie. She could run statewide or be a highly successful HUD or DOT Secretary in the next Democratic administration. If you want to throw a few dollars at a candidate, she's my pick.
FWIW, Kansas Republicans just didn't have the votes. There were a handful of moderates that weren't on board with redistricting and have been holding out for weeks (and the statement about abandoning the effort came out before election results). I don't know if Sharice Davids threatening to run for Senate was a factor at all (she should still give it a go!)
"Because Virginia Democrats held the House of Delegates,"
Um, they picked up THIRTEEN seats! Don't undersell it!
A Dem winning AG instead of his opponent will make many people safer, especially the most vulnerable. None of his like Jones's texts but to say you wish he'd lost reeks of privilege.
As the linked article notes, Republican state legislators in Kansas didn't give up on redistricting, they just decided not to pursue it via a particular procedural maneuver to call themselves into a special session without the governor's approval. They still plan to pursue redistricting when their normal session starts in January.
A lot of it is also trust. Spanberger earned that trust from independents and moderate Republicans, getting a ton of crossover votes. Not by pandering, but by doing the work and creating a record of how she would govern. Almost every county in the Commonwealth trended blue. You don’t get that when rural voters are afraid of what you might do.
From her victory speech,
“I also know that her supporters are disappointed today — and to those Virginians who did not vote for me — I want you to know that my goal and intent is to serve all Virginians and that means I will listen to you. I will work for and with you. That is the approach I’ve taken throughout my whole career. I have worked with anyone and everyone — regardless of political party — to deliver results for the people that I serve.
That’s because I believe in this idea: that there is so much more that unites us as Virginians and as Americans than divides us. I know in my heart that we can unite for Virginia’s future and we can set an example for the rest of the nation.
Our founders understood this from the very beginning. They didn’t choose to call Virginia a “Commonwealth” by accident. They chose it to signify that our government would be based on the power of the people united for a common good. Not for a political party. Not for a President. Not for a monarch. But for a common good. Together.”
She has a bright political future.
Look, what Jay Jones said was definitely bad, but when you have elected officials like Sen Mike Lee making fun of the attack on Paul Pelosi and Rep Andy Ogles tweeting gifs of the 9/11 attacks to make fun of Zohran, can you blame voters for not really caring?
Or trump in 2016 saying we might need "2nd amendment solutions" if clinton won.
Jones's texts suck, but his private shitty texts are less inflammatory than what a lot of republican politicians have said through official channels.
Thanks for calling a spade a spade Kelsey. Character does matter. We have to do better on all sides. If Trump is the threat I believe him to be we have to be better.
The Jay Jones commentary is dumb. He didn't say anything about shooting any kids. The text messages are bad, but there's no reason to lie about it.
And what needs to be worked out intellectually is the culture of political violence America already has to solve problems. There is an old classically liberal problem about the state's monopoly on violence, tyrannical state violence, and violent rhetoric. The distinction here you're drawing is rather arbitrary compared to the violence we see on TV every day. Jones' win says that it doesn't bother people anymore because the social contract is being shredded.
Per Coyne, Jones did say that he wished his opponents kids would die to change his mind about issues, presumably gun control. The published texts are compatible with that claim. Best of my knowledge, he has not denied it.
Jones trailed Spanberger by over 8 points. That’s a lot of gettable voters he didn’t get. If we were in a Hailey administration without Doge and a shutdown, he would have lost.
That's simply not true, it was not true, and you don't have to defend it. You're asking to prove a negative based on multiple hypotheticals you made up in your head.
Again, the issue is liberals relationship to violence, and how horrible rhetoric can be said as long as it has the *astericks that the state has done it is fine. This sort of hypocrisy about language policing while endorsing many of our existing violent systems like actual policing is why a lot of potential voters have come to the conclusion both parties are the same.
He repeatedly and emphatically apologized. Maybe that shouldn’t matter given the nature of the texts, and he got caught going 114 mph, which seems bad for a state’s top cop.
Baiting headline ignores historic turnout in NYC and NJ.
Yes the right talking a lot about trans issues is a flop. As was the even bigger flop of the left trying to institutionalize their views. Most voters want both sides to shut up about it.
I do wonder if trans issues were a flop precisely because there has been so much ground ceded on that issue by pro-trans groups in the past few years that they don't feel like a pressing issue to a lot of voters anymore.
Kelsey wishing Jay Jones lost is extraordinarily goofy. Do you remember how obnoxious twitter communists were when they were swearing up and down about not voting for Biden? This is infinitely pettier than that.
When she says that he is less likely to 'entertain Trumpy abuses of federal power', the conversation should stop there. Donald Trump is a fascist insurrectionist; opposing him matters infinitely more than one dem being foul-mouthed.
I don't say this as a hater, btw: Kelsey's a good writer! Her take just struck me as PROFOUNDLY un-serious, especially for a liberal.
The assumption seems to be that Democrats did so well last night purely because of higher enthusiasm and turnout, but how sure are we of this? How do we know how much of the swing from 2024 was due to turnout vs. persuasion?
Pollsters knew about the fact that Democrats are more likely to turnout and presumably controlled for that, and yet the polls still really underestimated Democrats. Is it possible that pollsters, in reaction to previous misses that underestimated Republicans, are now overestimating Trump’s approval and Republicans’ generic ballot numbers with the general public? I haven’t crunched the numbers, but the swings in Virginia and New Jersey seem much larger than you’d have expected based purely on turnout differentials.
Turnout was down in at least some red areas.
Doge and the shutdown had an acute direct effect on a whole lot of Virginians. They were really motivated. Losing your career has that effect.
Sure, I’m not denying turnout partially explains it, but I’m skeptical it’s most or all of the story given how large these swings were. Democrats were also more likely to turnout in 2021 and performed far worse in these states.
We saw big swings for Democrats in SE Virginia and New Jersey as well, which aren’t as affected by DOGE and the shutdown, so I don’t think that explains much of the swing on its own (maybe a couple points statewide in Virginia).
Hampton Roads, aka southeastern Virginia, is home to an enormous number of military bases and government contractors that were directly affected by Doge and the shutdown. Norfolk Naval Station is just one example of MANY.
Virginia has the second highest percentage of government employees, the second highest percentage of active military, the second highest percentage of veterans at 9%, the largest share of government contract dollars, etc.
That’s good for a whole lot more than a couple of points.
You aren’t from Virginia, I’m guessing.
You can chill out with the condescension.
And again, we also saw big swings in New Jersey, that’s my broader point. You can’t explain away last night as just local factors plus turnout (at least, I’d want to see rigorous number crunching show that is the case before believing it). I do think this shows Trump and Republicans really are broadly unpopular, and *possibly* more unpopular than polls currently suggest.
Lakshya was attributing everything to turnout, and I think that’s at least not obviously true. We should be open to the idea that there really is persuasion going on.
This is disqualifying for a legitimate moderate left publication. This makes me want to stop reading. What the person does in office is always more important than meaningless personal behavior. If the point is that the R in this race is not very different, ok, make that point. Otherwise, please stop.
“I wish Jay Jones had lost.”
A candidate wishing death on his opponents kids, in a discussion with a Republican legislator, is really, really bad.
I had no idea that was a controversial opinion.
Voters didn’t like it either. He won, but he won despite himself, and by a much narrower margin than he should have.
In the face of 2025 Donald Trump, it doesn't matter. American democracy is currently at the "masked gestapo hauling minorities off the street at their discretion" stage. The choice between 'Guy who would be friendly to Trump's legal abuses' and 'literally any other type of guy' is the second, ALWAYS the second.
I think we have the best chance against Donald Trump by having some standards that include "do not tell a Republican legislator that you wish death on your opponents' children" and also "do not drive 116 MPH and then cheat on the community service you were sentenced to". Jones should've been replaced with a Dem who hadn't said and done that stuff.
I don't mean to be aggressive but why shift the conversation from a debate about values to electoralism? You said it yourself here:
> But his comments about his opponents were genuinely horrendous, and I think they did a lot of damage to Americans’ ability to trust that almost no one literally wants to kill each other over our political differences — a shared value on which a functional democracy must rest. **That cause is a lot more important to me than the Virginia AG**
I don't disagree that Jones should have been replaced, but that's not what you said. You said you wished he had lost. That is the sentiment I think is unserious.
I’m saying if a random text is more important than the likely policy differences between a typical D and R as a state Attorney General, I’d say that makes a disturbing statement.
Someone else said that Trump is so out of bounds, he forces others into weird, unresolvable ethical dilemmas.
It simply isn’t acceptable with Trump’s abuses of power to have a GOP AG in Virginia. It’s too dangerous.
One under-the-radar mayoral race to be excited about: Miami, Florida.
It’s headed to a runoff, but the frontrunner, Eileen Higgins, is someone this publication should be genuinely excited about.
Higgins first won office in 2018 in a major upset, taking a runoff in a district that includes Little Havana against a well-connected GOP establishment figure.
She’s a real housing + transportation wonk. Because of her service on the county Commission, Dade County has seen tens of thousands of new housing units built on publicly owned land. She’s pushed to clear underutilized land around rail stations to allow Hudson Yards-scaled developments, secured federal funding for new rail lines, and generally pushes a "maximum YIMBY" vision, with high-rises around rail lines modeled after cities like Vancouver, Singapore, and Hong Kong.
She's a technocrat, an engineer by training, and a moderate who isn't an establishmentarian.
If she wins, she could become a real rising star: Florida’s answer to Matt Mahan or Daniel Lurie. She could run statewide or be a highly successful HUD or DOT Secretary in the next Democratic administration. If you want to throw a few dollars at a candidate, she's my pick.
Good point, so many other races went under the radar that should be getting a lot more visibility.
FWIW, Kansas Republicans just didn't have the votes. There were a handful of moderates that weren't on board with redistricting and have been holding out for weeks (and the statement about abandoning the effort came out before election results). I don't know if Sharice Davids threatening to run for Senate was a factor at all (she should still give it a go!)
"Because Virginia Democrats held the House of Delegates,"
Um, they picked up THIRTEEN seats! Don't undersell it!
A Dem winning AG instead of his opponent will make many people safer, especially the most vulnerable. None of his like Jones's texts but to say you wish he'd lost reeks of privilege.
As the linked article notes, Republican state legislators in Kansas didn't give up on redistricting, they just decided not to pursue it via a particular procedural maneuver to call themselves into a special session without the governor's approval. They still plan to pursue redistricting when their normal session starts in January.
Point 8: maybe it was Hank Green? Nerdfighteria are a very coordinated group
https://youtu.be/UgvE_gPi7Kc?si=JGsLvW3bUwDKKRqm