I remember lot of ppl (including Lakshya) made a comment earlier in presidency that Trump seems to take all the wrong lesson from his win and this has proven very right so far - like it’s one thing if he acts like he cares about price but falls short to achieve it but he has done everything except to lower the price.
And a lot of people have mentioned this but it is WILD that they are doing almost everything to deter the non white people in every way imaginable - like having ICE implement most theatrical way possible to arrest legal immigrants and giving literal Nazis a megaphone is really something.
Like if you’re GOP you would want to welcome Jewish ppl who ditch Democrats over Palestinian issues but they decided to give megaphone to Carlson and Fuentes - while Mamdani is walking back a lot of statements he made in the past. (Btw it also seems like there’s a huge perception gap on this issue - a lot of ppl on the right seem to view Mamdani as Nazi??? Like I think he def made some controversial and dumb statements in the past but and you can argue that him walking them back is insincere etc but it would take a massive mental gymnastics to say Dems have bigger antisemitic issue after seeing what transpired to Carlson and Fuentes citing Mamdani esp considering he is just running for mayor even if that’s the biggest city in US)
"But it’s not all good news for the Democrats. We asked voters about their top two issues and, unsurprisingly, 60% of voters ranked “cost of living” as a top-two issue in our survey. But despite Trump’s tariff policy and the continuing frustration with high grocery and consumer-goods prices, Democrats won these cost-of-living voters by just under half a percentage point in our survey."
Likely because Democrats have shown minimal abilities to improve affordability in their fiefdoms of longstanding control, and their tendency to regulate almost certainly makes things worse.
Historically, presidents' numbers get worse or stay the same between this time and the midterms. There's what is known as the sixth year itch that comes for almost every two term president. Maybe this time is different, but call me highly skeptical.
I’m not confident of many things, but Democrats doing well next year is one of them. I hate having Trump around as much as anyone but one upside is he’s a boon for Democrats electoral prospects. I write about these kinds of things on my newsletter below if you’re interested. It’s free!
Does evidence support the idea that low engagement voters are generally anti-incumbent? My theory is that they swung against Dems in 2024 because Biden was in the White House and are now swinging against Trump.
Maybe. The election is a long way away. The Rs can still scare voters with images of Democrats opening borders and allowing men in women's locker rooms. What Trump should do is ease up on ICE going into cities, come up with a better health insurance plan, and focus on the economy, but Trump being Trump, I'm not holding my breath any more than I'm holding my breath that Ds will come out for border security and protecting girls' sports. For people in the middle, it will, as usual, come down to a case of holding your nose and voting for the lesser of two evils.
I don't know. Maybe you can name one Democrat who is up for reelection and has come out in support of President Trump's border security policy. Because the evidence of the Biden years is that they all support open borders.
As for the salience, I'm taking a wild guess that the Republicans will make it an issue.
How does this square with Dems having such a small edge on the generic congressional ballot? Also, aren’t disengaged voters the least likely to affect the midterms?
I remember lot of ppl (including Lakshya) made a comment earlier in presidency that Trump seems to take all the wrong lesson from his win and this has proven very right so far - like it’s one thing if he acts like he cares about price but falls short to achieve it but he has done everything except to lower the price.
And a lot of people have mentioned this but it is WILD that they are doing almost everything to deter the non white people in every way imaginable - like having ICE implement most theatrical way possible to arrest legal immigrants and giving literal Nazis a megaphone is really something.
Like if you’re GOP you would want to welcome Jewish ppl who ditch Democrats over Palestinian issues but they decided to give megaphone to Carlson and Fuentes - while Mamdani is walking back a lot of statements he made in the past. (Btw it also seems like there’s a huge perception gap on this issue - a lot of ppl on the right seem to view Mamdani as Nazi??? Like I think he def made some controversial and dumb statements in the past but and you can argue that him walking them back is insincere etc but it would take a massive mental gymnastics to say Dems have bigger antisemitic issue after seeing what transpired to Carlson and Fuentes citing Mamdani esp considering he is just running for mayor even if that’s the biggest city in US)
Inject this into my veins.
"But it’s not all good news for the Democrats. We asked voters about their top two issues and, unsurprisingly, 60% of voters ranked “cost of living” as a top-two issue in our survey. But despite Trump’s tariff policy and the continuing frustration with high grocery and consumer-goods prices, Democrats won these cost-of-living voters by just under half a percentage point in our survey."
Likely because Democrats have shown minimal abilities to improve affordability in their fiefdoms of longstanding control, and their tendency to regulate almost certainly makes things worse.
Wishful thinking. But I'll wish along with you.
How are poll results “wishful thinking”?
It's a long time until the 2026 midterms.
Historically, presidents' numbers get worse or stay the same between this time and the midterms. There's what is known as the sixth year itch that comes for almost every two term president. Maybe this time is different, but call me highly skeptical.
As I said, I'm wishing along with everyone else! I've just had my hopes dashed a *lot* over the last 10 years.
I’m not confident of many things, but Democrats doing well next year is one of them. I hate having Trump around as much as anyone but one upside is he’s a boon for Democrats electoral prospects. I write about these kinds of things on my newsletter below if you’re interested. It’s free!
www.coldpoliticaltakes.substack.com
Does evidence support the idea that low engagement voters are generally anti-incumbent? My theory is that they swung against Dems in 2024 because Biden was in the White House and are now swinging against Trump.
Maybe. The election is a long way away. The Rs can still scare voters with images of Democrats opening borders and allowing men in women's locker rooms. What Trump should do is ease up on ICE going into cities, come up with a better health insurance plan, and focus on the economy, but Trump being Trump, I'm not holding my breath any more than I'm holding my breath that Ds will come out for border security and protecting girls' sports. For people in the middle, it will, as usual, come down to a case of holding your nose and voting for the lesser of two evils.
Which Democrats running in competitive seats are against border security? The party has moved pretty far to the center on the issue in recent years.
Also, the salience of immigration to normie voters has shrunk and it probably won’t be a top issue in 2026.
I don't know. Maybe you can name one Democrat who is up for reelection and has come out in support of President Trump's border security policy. Because the evidence of the Biden years is that they all support open borders.
As for the salience, I'm taking a wild guess that the Republicans will make it an issue.
How does this square with Dems having such a small edge on the generic congressional ballot? Also, aren’t disengaged voters the least likely to affect the midterms?