How Trump put the Senate into play
Could Democrats do the impossible?
The conventional wisdom is that Democrats are unlikely to flip the Senate this year. Even accounting for Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity, doing so requires Democrats to win at least two states that Trump won by 10 points or more in 2024.
Right now, however, they’re on track to do exactly that.
One component of this story is that Donald Trump’s approval rating has rapidly devolved from “poor” to “abysmal.” In the process, he has bled support from every imaginable element of the coalition that powered him to victory in 2024 and from every possible demographic.
On a state-by-state level, the data paints a catastrophic picture for the president. Using our polling data, we can assemble estimates of Trump’s approval on a state-by-state basis among likely 2026 voters (in other words, the ones who will actually vote in the midterms). With these voters, he sits above water in just 15 states, despite winning 31 of them against Kamala Harris just over a year ago.
There is little precedent for a party having a great midterm when they’re facing such strong headwinds,1 and this cycle is no different. Democrats have made significant gains on the generic ballot as a result of Trump’s immense unpopularity, with our surveys currently pointing to a wave that would actually exceed 2018 in magnitude.
Given the sheer volume of voter discontent with Trump and the corresponding penalty being paid by Republicans, it isn’t exactly surprising that the Senate is in play. Winning Senate seats in Ohio, Alaska, Texas, and Iowa might be tough lifts for Democrats in a presidential cycle. But it becomes much more likely in a midterm like this, especially when Trump is underwater in every one of those states.
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