How would each state vote right now?

Trump approval and generic ballot estimates, by state

Control of the House and Senate is up for grabs as Donald Trump’s popularity plummets.

Want to know how your state is actually leaning ahead of the midterms? Scroll down. We've turned The Argument's original polling into two maps: one showing Trump's approval and one for which party voters would back if elections were held today. We'll refresh these maps every month until you cast your ballot.

The short version is brutal for Republicans: Trump is 20 points underwater with the voters most likely to turn out, and Democrats are doing even better than the topline suggests. But the national picture hides a lot, and the state-by-state version is where it gets interesting.

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How are Democrats looking among 2026 likely voters?

With modeling based off of The Argument’s original polling data, we can assemble an extremely detailed view of how Democrats are doing with likely 2026 voters (i.e. the midterm electorate). We consistently see that this group is slightly more high-propensity and Democratic-leaning than the rest of the country is at large; for instance, Democrats lead our surveys of likely voters by nine points nationally, even though they lead among registered voters by six percentage points.

Here’s how they’re doing on a state-by-state basis. This data will be regularly updated through the midterms.

How is Donald Trump doing with 2026 likely voters?

Midterms are usually referendums on the president, and 2026 is shaping up to be no different. After winning the popular vote in 2024, Donald Trump has seen his national popularity nose-dive. His approval rating with likely 2026 voters currently sits at -20. This data will be regularly updated.

Here’s what that looks like on a state-by-state basis.

Methodology:

To construct our state-level estimates for the generic ballot and approval numbers among 2026 likely voters, we use our polling estimates and apply them on a demographic level, with poststratification. By comparing the panel-profiled 2024 presidential vote per demographic to the 2026 margin with likely voters of that same subgroup, we were able to calculate the swing at a demographic level. Demographic swings were calculated from our polling data for the national, regional, and state level, where available.

For each state, the three swings were blended together, weighting each component for sample size (and discarding subgroup sample sizes of less than 100 entirely) to ensure the stability of estimates. These demographic-imputed swings were then blended with the full state-level polling estimates, weighted for sample size. A calibration step is applied to bring each historical survey in line with current estimates of the generic ballot.