Texas Republicans’ big gamble last night — nominating a scandal-prone attorney general best known either for being indicted on securities fraud or for his repeat adultery — could risk the entire Senate majority.
Incumbent John Cornyn would likely have won by five or six points, and the seat will still likely stay red. But with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton taking the nomination, Republicans will have to spend big just to maintain a lead of less than one percentage point, according to models by The Argument’s Lakshya Jain, Split Ticket’s Armin Thomas, and VoteHub’s Zachary Donnini.
“Not only is Paxton not an incumbent, not only does he not have Cornyn’s reasonably strong electoral track record, but he also has some pretty serious fundraising issues. Texas is a big state. It’s an expensive state to run in. He basically has no cash on hand,” said Donnini in a Substack live video Wednesday. “Cornyn is a fundraising machine. Paxton is going to get outraised and outspent by [Texas State Rep. James] Talarico by probably a lot.”
Talarico, the Democratic nominee for Senate running against Paxton, comes with baggage. But even if you put aside the risk of a Democratic upset in Texas, Republicans are gearing up for an incredibly expensive race that will draw resources away from other seats the party is defending.
That means candidates like Alaska’s Mary Peltola and Ohio’s Sherrod Brown, which Lakshya’s survey data shows being slight favorites, will get an extra advantage.
“You’re going to have to put in a lot of money into Ohio, for example, to make sure that Sherrod Brown doesn’t win, because at the moment, if you held the election today, he probably would. So now the question becomes ‘What is going to be required for Paxton to maintain parity between now and November?’ And where is that money going to come from?” he said.
Check out the video above to hear more about how the Paxton pick changes Republicans’ 2026 game plan
