The Argument

The Argument

The Opening Argument

Republicans did even worse than we warned

How did The Argument’s analysis hold up?

Lakshya Jain's avatar
Lakshya Jain
Nov 04, 2026
People are silhouetted in front of a voting results graph during a Democratic midterm election night watch party at the Long Center for the Performing Arts in Austin, Texas, on November 3, 2026. (Photo by RONALDO SCHEMIDT / AFP via Getty Images)

If you went into a coma and just woke up, congratulations. You just missed the tsunami of the century. Not since the Watergate midterms of 1974 has an incumbent party been routed this comprehensively.

There’ll be a lot of time to dissect and analyze the results. We won’t even know the full set of outcomes just yet — in Mississippi, there’s a very real chance that Scott Colom could beat incumbent Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith to give Democrats a 55th seat, which could grow to 56 if Mary Peltola clinches the win in Alaska (as she looks likely to do).

But we do know enough to give you a brief postmortem on how the models and the polls did. In particular, for subscribers to this magazine, it’s probably worth running through our coverage and modeling from this cycle.

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