The culture war is a symptom

The “post-material” story is wrong. Material conditions are behind the shift to the right.

Anti-migrant activists take part in an anti immigration rally with a counter anti racism demonstration also taking place on April 26, 2025 in Dublin, Ireland. (Photo by Charles McQuillan/Getty Images)

One of the most common refrains is that modern politics are “post-material.” Political scientist Ronald Inglehart popularized the idea that as societies get richer, voters shift from ‘materialist’ concerns like wages and jobs to ‘post-materialist’ ones like identity, self-expression, and cultural belonging.

Instead of choosing candidates based on economic issues, the reasoning goes, voters are voting for candidates and parties based on cultural issues. The clearest example of this was the “vibecession” of the last three years, in which Joe Biden and Donald Trump’s presidential approval ratings suffered from declines in consumer confidence despite a strong economy and healthy job market.

The most popular explanation for the negative reaction to relatively strong economic growth was that it tracked negative media coverage of the economy, as well as partisanship.

However, the problem with this “post-material” explanation is that it’s simply not true. The actual cause of recent negative consumer sentiment has been high prices and soaring interest rates, both of which are straightforwardly material issues.

While cultural issues like transgender rights have become a popular way to explain away voters swinging to the right, there is basically no evidence that conservatives managed to score wins off anti-trans rhetoric. The Virginia Republican Party, for instance, centered its 2025 gubernatorial campaign on the issue and was 13 points underwater on it with voters (ditto for New Jersey Republicans).

Polling by The Argument found that Trump’s close association with Jeffrey Epstein, a convicted sex offender accused by multiple women of sexually abusing minors, wasn’t what affected his approval rating —it was his numbers on the economy and health care.

If anything, politics has become more economic, not just because voters care about the economy to the detriment of most other issues, but also because economic conditions determine who turns up to vote. Where voters are positioned on the income scale and on the education ladder has become the main factor determining their partisan affiliation.

Why have working class voters shifted right?