Hm, I wonder if pushing the issue could have electoral value beyond persuasion. For example, it’s possible that this whole saga has really decreased enthusiasm for Trump from part of his base, and might reduce their turnout compared to the counterfactual where the Epstein issue didn’t reemerge.
Also though, I think presidents become unpopular gradually through a gradual build up of many negative issues rather than one or two salient issues taking them down. So even if on its own this issue might not do much it still might be part of the recipe to make Trump more unpopular a year from now. It contributes to a general sense of bad vibes around Trump that night gradually pull him down.
It’s possible, though as we mentioned in last week’s article, the Dem enthusiasm advantage was, like, +4. That’s not especially unusual. But maybe that changes!
What percentage of people still remember him talking about “grab them by the p****”? I think once they overcame that, they were inoculated against basically anything having to do with sexual morality.
Probably if you say the phrase, most people over the age of 20 would remember. But if you ask some more open ended question, it might not come to mind without prompting.
I typically use my wife, friends, and family as a personal poll to see what political news is actually breaking through. It astounds me that what seems to be a cover up related to our president doesn’t have everyone on the right and left screaming for transparency.
But then again the 2nd Trump term seems to have created to new national malaise when it comes to coverups, tariffs, targeting political foes etc.
It’s sad that unless the Dems can wrench back some control in congress America will just except being lied to again and again.
Dispositions of Trump-loving Republicans are unpersuadable. They are inflexible, intractable, and adamantine…
All accounts, judgments, allusions, insinuations, innuendos, or suggestions of malevolence implicating Trump are, somehow, both meticulously and arbitrarily ignored. It is the signature MAGA behavior. They will always support him. No matter what.
This is why it is so important to re-establish (establish?), and maintain political unity among American liberals and socialists — if only temporarily, and only for the sake of mutual self-defense. Fascists have proven several times already, that they will absolutely take (and hold!) power, ignoring any and all laws in the process — and abuse this power to persecute their opposition as out-groups — unless their cause is dispatched swiftly, and with cold indifference. This is exactly what they are doing to the left, and to liberalism — as planned — and what they will continue to do to us, their opposition, as long as they're allowed so much as a gulp of air.
Lessons of the Epstein scandal are instances within an endless parade of encounters with this horror, which paralyzes our attention and fixes it to our screens in both dread and fascination, as we anxiously await the next report…
An alternative explanation is that this is just preference falsification. People say they believe Epstein was murdered or that Trump was involved because it's the socially fashionable thing to say, but deep down they don't really buy it. It's less a sincere belief than a posture - a way to signal vague distrust of elites rather than a concrete conviction about this specific case. Their revealed beliefs/preferences show up in how they vote.
I guess I can’t argue with the facts, but this intuitively feels off to me. I never thought there was much to the story. I always assumed that Trump, as a billionaire who partied with models in the 80s, had sex with underage girls and associated with other men who did the same. I’m not sure people realize just how much the social mores have changed. Does nobody remember Annie Hall?
Nor did it surprise me that Epstein would rather die than exchange his charmed life for one in prison.
The people who cared were QAnon and nominally apolitical people like Joe Rogan — in other words, idiots, in other words, average voters.
I only started caring because Trumpworld sucked up all the conspiracy theorists and they cared a lot. But Trump told them not to, and that seems to have stuck. It just seems like more cult behavior to me. Is Rogan still pushing it?
Democrats need to identify what about an issue they can actually exploit. The Epstein stuff isn't necessarily going to get people to flip on him, because it's not why they voted for him. What you can do with it though is make people a lot less comfortable about their support, which will result in them more completely abandoning him if you can get them to reject him over something more tangible like the economy.
I really wish our politicians would think like politicians and try to identify what they can exploit from a situation. You aren't going to tell people Trump is a pedophile and get a win. You can ask uncomfortable questions and damage their support for him even if they don't reject him completely over this.
Bleak
If "bleak" is the answer to today's Wordle, then the essay above is the hint.
Hm, I wonder if pushing the issue could have electoral value beyond persuasion. For example, it’s possible that this whole saga has really decreased enthusiasm for Trump from part of his base, and might reduce their turnout compared to the counterfactual where the Epstein issue didn’t reemerge.
Also though, I think presidents become unpopular gradually through a gradual build up of many negative issues rather than one or two salient issues taking them down. So even if on its own this issue might not do much it still might be part of the recipe to make Trump more unpopular a year from now. It contributes to a general sense of bad vibes around Trump that night gradually pull him down.
It’s possible, though as we mentioned in last week’s article, the Dem enthusiasm advantage was, like, +4. That’s not especially unusual. But maybe that changes!
What percentage of people still remember him talking about “grab them by the p****”? I think once they overcame that, they were inoculated against basically anything having to do with sexual morality.
I actually wonder about that — if we tested Access Hollywood today, how many people would remember it?
Probably if you say the phrase, most people over the age of 20 would remember. But if you ask some more open ended question, it might not come to mind without prompting.
I typically use my wife, friends, and family as a personal poll to see what political news is actually breaking through. It astounds me that what seems to be a cover up related to our president doesn’t have everyone on the right and left screaming for transparency.
But then again the 2nd Trump term seems to have created to new national malaise when it comes to coverups, tariffs, targeting political foes etc.
It’s sad that unless the Dems can wrench back some control in congress America will just except being lied to again and again.
That June 2024 poll is kind of wild.
Dispositions of Trump-loving Republicans are unpersuadable. They are inflexible, intractable, and adamantine…
All accounts, judgments, allusions, insinuations, innuendos, or suggestions of malevolence implicating Trump are, somehow, both meticulously and arbitrarily ignored. It is the signature MAGA behavior. They will always support him. No matter what.
This is why it is so important to re-establish (establish?), and maintain political unity among American liberals and socialists — if only temporarily, and only for the sake of mutual self-defense. Fascists have proven several times already, that they will absolutely take (and hold!) power, ignoring any and all laws in the process — and abuse this power to persecute their opposition as out-groups — unless their cause is dispatched swiftly, and with cold indifference. This is exactly what they are doing to the left, and to liberalism — as planned — and what they will continue to do to us, their opposition, as long as they're allowed so much as a gulp of air.
Lessons of the Epstein scandal are instances within an endless parade of encounters with this horror, which paralyzes our attention and fixes it to our screens in both dread and fascination, as we anxiously await the next report…
An alternative explanation is that this is just preference falsification. People say they believe Epstein was murdered or that Trump was involved because it's the socially fashionable thing to say, but deep down they don't really buy it. It's less a sincere belief than a posture - a way to signal vague distrust of elites rather than a concrete conviction about this specific case. Their revealed beliefs/preferences show up in how they vote.
Jeff Epstein? The New York financier? What did he do now?
I guess I can’t argue with the facts, but this intuitively feels off to me. I never thought there was much to the story. I always assumed that Trump, as a billionaire who partied with models in the 80s, had sex with underage girls and associated with other men who did the same. I’m not sure people realize just how much the social mores have changed. Does nobody remember Annie Hall?
Nor did it surprise me that Epstein would rather die than exchange his charmed life for one in prison.
The people who cared were QAnon and nominally apolitical people like Joe Rogan — in other words, idiots, in other words, average voters.
I only started caring because Trumpworld sucked up all the conspiracy theorists and they cared a lot. But Trump told them not to, and that seems to have stuck. It just seems like more cult behavior to me. Is Rogan still pushing it?
Democrats need to identify what about an issue they can actually exploit. The Epstein stuff isn't necessarily going to get people to flip on him, because it's not why they voted for him. What you can do with it though is make people a lot less comfortable about their support, which will result in them more completely abandoning him if you can get them to reject him over something more tangible like the economy.
I really wish our politicians would think like politicians and try to identify what they can exploit from a situation. You aren't going to tell people Trump is a pedophile and get a win. You can ask uncomfortable questions and damage their support for him even if they don't reject him completely over this.