It’s the crime, stupid.
That’s all I could think when I saw the latest numbers from our newest survey at The Argument, where we polled voters on their attitudes about immigration — and the policies that may get them to support more of it.
Contrary to what many may think, Americans are not inherently anti-immigration. In many cases, voters have clear and positive impressions of the contributions immigrants have made, both to the country and to their local communities. But support for immigration has still seen a marked dip since Donald Trump’s first term.
Why? Here’s a big reason: A nontrivial chunk of American voters are linking immigration to crime.
When it comes to immigration’s impact on the economy (+11), culture (+22), and overall in their local communities (+14), Americans view the impact of immigration positively. But when it comes to public safety (-16), it’s a different story altogether.
Just 21% of Americans think immigration has had a positive impact when it comes to public safety in their communities, while 37% think that the impact has been negative. That makes it the only tested dimension on which the public has a net-negative view of immigration’s local impact.
That number may seem startling, but there is an explanation: the American turn toward xenophobia came after a significant rise in homicides and motor vehicle thefts in the immediate post-COVID era. That mirrors a larger pattern, where throughout recent American history, anti-immigrant sentiment has risen during times of societal unrest and spikes in crime.
For example, in Gallup’s tracking data, the percentage of Americans calling for a decrease in immigration levels rose sharply between 1965 and 1995, peaking at 65% by the end of the period. This also correlated extremely well with a steady increase in violent crime rates nationally, especially with the crime wave of the 1990s. Similarly, Gallup observed a brief but very significant spike in anti-immigrant sentiment immediately after 9/11 and another notable spike during the peak of the Great Recession.
You can see the strains of anti-crime sentiment driving anti-immigration sentiment in our survey too. We conducted an experiment where we asked respondents what would make them more comfortable with higher levels of legal immigration. To account for people on either end of the spectrum, we provided the options to say that either none of the proposed changes would make them more comfortable, or that they were already in favor of it. Either of these responses would block respondents from selecting any other policy choice as would make them more favorable toward legal immigration.
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