Winning is everything. It also means nothing

Mad Libs: Is this the dumbest metric in politics?

Welcome to Mad Libs. This is an irregular debate column where our columnists, contributors, staff writers, (or even you, dear reader) can duke it out over the big ideas we’re discussing in the metaphorical pages of this magazine.

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Charlotte Swasey, director of analytics at Searchlight Institute

Most people, most months, most years, don’t lose their jobs. Some of those people probably deserve to lose their jobs (think about the worst coworker that you’ve ever had and how long they kept their job), and others don’t. “Didn’t get fired” tells you something about a worker’s conduct and skill, but not a ton. Identifying why a person got fired at a particular point in time requires knowledge of their entire situation, and even that may not give you usable lessons in remaining not-fired yourself.

This is also true for candidates.

Whether or not a candidate wins an election is certainly related to their qualities (i.e. do they fit the district, did they run a good campaign), but not entirely determined by those qualities. It might be a tough year for their party (as it is about to be for the Republicans), or their opponent might be exceptionally good. There can be bizarre local factors at play that aren’t obvious to outside observers or interactions with other elections happening at the same time.

A victorious candidate likely had some traits or strategies that are useful to other candidates, as well as some that aren’t.

When a candidate loses, particularly in high-profile races or in special elections that occur in slow election months, many posters and analysts default to blaming that loss on whatever annoyed them the most. This is relevant in the ramp-up to the midterms because Democrats are absolutely crushing it in special elections.

Just last week in New Jersey, Analilia Mejia scored a victory in a Democratic district, which immediately led Faiz Shakir to declare that the discussion about the suitability of “Bernie style candidates” was over. After the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, the Daily Beast predicted a “blue wave” and “ultimate humiliation” for Trump on the strength of recent results. Analyst Harry Enten called a Florida legislature special a “really big sign” for the midterms.