To be fair, this is a "we've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas" kind of problem. If the party would actually do something to appeal to this kind of voter. Even just coming out and saying we're trying to win this kind of voter, that would at least give some movement.
There was a paper that made the rounds just this past week about which issues would be the best to moderate one. Pick two or three of those to break from the Democratic orthodoxy on. I think race-based affirmative action was the top one. Make sure it's loud and clear and sincere. Pick some fights with leftists if needed.
You seem to care a great deal about the “Meaningless cultural issues nobody actually cares about.” I think this is an admission that you may not represent a very large voting bloc.
If the Democrats actually made this change, would you vote for Republicans instead?
I'll be honest, this is not my demographic, but let me throw our some dangerously stereotyped ideas:
- Education and healthcare are probably strong issues, especially if a bunch of these are mothers who might not care about politics that much. Pro-choice too, women control their own bodies.
- Cost of living is always hot, and these are people in rougher economic situations.
- White non-college is going to want less illegal immigration, and that's probably going to include asylum backdoor immigration. Back to the policies of Clinton and Obama, looking for a comprehensive deal while deporting criminals and stopping unauthorized migration.
But in general, normie kitchen-table issues. Real tangible things that impact "everyday" working people. Don't be grandiose about society, just make life work better.
These are all good choices if the only cultural politics you want to moderate on is immigration, but if you really want to win this kind of voter one of the number one views you have to move toward them on is their extremely salient view that Democrats suck super badly.
Like you have to actually be willing to say other Democrats are woke dumbasses who love affirmative action and immigration and gun control, but I'm not like that. I'm a Democrat because I believe in {all that good healthcare etc stuff} but I'm not voting for any radical legislation that goes against my values.
To be clear I'm saying this as a prescription for candidates in Iowa and Texas and so on. I know people are worried a candidate like this will depress turnout among the core but I think that's basically cope for not wanting to do it. Our core base of educated people hate Trump and the GOP so much they will vote for literally anyone we put up who promises to stick it to them.
It is useless to bring Harris into arguments because no one claims her as aligned with their views. No one ever really know where she stood, what she believed - and her situation given what Biden did was pretty impossible. Though saying she couldn't think of anything Biden had done wrong only made it worse. She was a terrible politician.
The things I am describing - I'm talking about what Bill Clinton, Obama, Biden 2020 all did. Every wining Democratic president in my lifetime has been fairly moderate and focused on everyday issues rather than big systemic changes.
I'm in Iowa and this is why I wanted Nathan Sage to win our senate primary - my sense is that R voters would be much more likely to vote D if it's someone new, not someone attached to the last 8 years of the Democratic party. (If the tables were turned, that's exactly how I would feel too!)
After reading this, I’m struggling to find the evidence that supports the headline. It would help to have an apples- to- apples comparison of approval rating in 2025 vs 2026. Instead this seems to be relying on comparisons of approval with vote share, but isn’t it possible that many 2024 female Trump voters disapproved of him but voted for him nonetheless? If so, that doesn’t really tell us much about the 2026 or 2028 election, does it?
I increasingly feel the current dynamic of leaderless Democrats is not helping. Tbf I think Hakeem Jeffries is going a solid job but minority house leader is not a position of influence…
And while I understand this is a bit of structural problem, I also don’t think everyone involved are not helping. Like
- establishment move to the left policy wise to reject left wing *people*
- left wing factions being dogmatic about everything
- moderate *politicians* either moderate in unpopular way (Fetterman) or nominate old established guy with very misguided idea of moderation. Also way more passionate about bashing left wing *people* than *policy* (like Texeira - I think what he says is overall good but him basically just whining non stop instead of trying to populate his idea or convince people was very puzzling)
I voted for Harris, but I really had to think about it because as a mom, I view the Democrats' cultural agenda as toxic and harmful to families like mine, and I also hate their immigration policy. For Congress, I just look at the individual candidates rather than party.
I can't imagine either party winning on affordability. We've now had inflation and price increases under bother parties. Why would you believe that either party will make things more affordable? (Also, are elected officials even capable of reversing some of these price increases and pain points? Probably not.)
On affordability, I would ask you to take a look at what each party did that spiked inflation. Democrats overestimated the necessary size of spending necessary to avoid a recession, and spent the money on infrastructure and green energy. Republicans spiked inflated by raising taxes and starting a(nother) war in the Middle East they had no plans for or method to end. I think those are different sins.
Not surprised. What in the world recommends support of Trump among women? Is it his moral character? His honesty and strength? His kindness and generosity? Or perhaps his policies and governance? Maybe his clever manner of speech and graceful use of the english language--or his clear intellectual acumen? Can anyone name one thing that merits support of Trump? Here is the REAL question: why would women, by and large, as a category of voters, not vote for the Democrats in their towns, states and nationally, running for office in 2026? Whatever the reasons one might scour up--they pale in comparison to the overwhelming task ahead. Vote! Vote the Republicans out. Vote for the Democrats. That is the first order of business in our battle for democracy.
What recommended him to women voters in 2016? Why did women not overwhelmingly vote for Democrats in 2024 after Roe v Wade had been overturned? I hope somebody knows the answer, because some of the demographics Democrats do the most favors for seem to have an inexplicably difficult time identifying which side their bread is buttered on. I guess the answer for 2024 at least was "affordability", as though modern Republicans can grasp basic concepts like "raising taxes on imports raises the prices of those imports" let alone serious economics.
Yeah I've been learning that, at this point the question is half rhetorical, half holding out hope that someone has a solution.
I remember reading a quoted exchange between a man and a feminist activist around the turn of the 20th century. He asked if all women were feminists and she said "Of course not, if that were true we would have killed you all in your sleep centuries ago!"
I guess we could try churning out charismatic speakers who make healthcare subsidies sound brash and cool while also making the whole problem look simpler than it is? Bernie does something like that, but he can't seem to catch on outside of disaffected under-40 progressives.
Assuming this gap between Trump approval and D vote holds, it would be an interesting mirror to the conservative black Dem coalition. To massively overgeneralize, group is bound to the Democratic party by Republican bigotry — what is keeping this group from going Dem?
I was a bit confused about the chart of vote swings that showed -7 for white women and -7 for non-white women, but -8 for women overall. I guess this is probably something involving the margins of error in a randomized survey, and the new survey has more non-white women than the old survey, so that the overall group is even less Trump-voting even than either subgroup.
Would love a poll that just focused on white women without a college degree. What are their top issues, why have they abandoned Trump, what turns them off about the Democratic Party?
I picture this as the MTG vote, mirroring her disillusionment with Trump.
Hard to picture my lefty friends making appeals to that voter, even if it is probably the right way to win.
To be fair, this is a "we've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas" kind of problem. If the party would actually do something to appeal to this kind of voter. Even just coming out and saying we're trying to win this kind of voter, that would at least give some movement.
We should all be specific when we make these claims. What should the party come out and do for these voters in your opinion?
Literally anything.
There was a paper that made the rounds just this past week about which issues would be the best to moderate one. Pick two or three of those to break from the Democratic orthodoxy on. I think race-based affirmative action was the top one. Make sure it's loud and clear and sincere. Pick some fights with leftists if needed.
You seem to care a great deal about the “Meaningless cultural issues nobody actually cares about.” I think this is an admission that you may not represent a very large voting bloc.
If the Democrats actually made this change, would you vote for Republicans instead?
I'll be honest, this is not my demographic, but let me throw our some dangerously stereotyped ideas:
- Education and healthcare are probably strong issues, especially if a bunch of these are mothers who might not care about politics that much. Pro-choice too, women control their own bodies.
- Cost of living is always hot, and these are people in rougher economic situations.
- White non-college is going to want less illegal immigration, and that's probably going to include asylum backdoor immigration. Back to the policies of Clinton and Obama, looking for a comprehensive deal while deporting criminals and stopping unauthorized migration.
But in general, normie kitchen-table issues. Real tangible things that impact "everyday" working people. Don't be grandiose about society, just make life work better.
These are all good choices if the only cultural politics you want to moderate on is immigration, but if you really want to win this kind of voter one of the number one views you have to move toward them on is their extremely salient view that Democrats suck super badly.
Like you have to actually be willing to say other Democrats are woke dumbasses who love affirmative action and immigration and gun control, but I'm not like that. I'm a Democrat because I believe in {all that good healthcare etc stuff} but I'm not voting for any radical legislation that goes against my values.
To be clear I'm saying this as a prescription for candidates in Iowa and Texas and so on. I know people are worried a candidate like this will depress turnout among the core but I think that's basically cope for not wanting to do it. Our core base of educated people hate Trump and the GOP so much they will vote for literally anyone we put up who promises to stick it to them.
It is useless to bring Harris into arguments because no one claims her as aligned with their views. No one ever really know where she stood, what she believed - and her situation given what Biden did was pretty impossible. Though saying she couldn't think of anything Biden had done wrong only made it worse. She was a terrible politician.
The things I am describing - I'm talking about what Bill Clinton, Obama, Biden 2020 all did. Every wining Democratic president in my lifetime has been fairly moderate and focused on everyday issues rather than big systemic changes.
Health care. The BBB is what started cracking MTG away.
I'm in Iowa and this is why I wanted Nathan Sage to win our senate primary - my sense is that R voters would be much more likely to vote D if it's someone new, not someone attached to the last 8 years of the Democratic party. (If the tables were turned, that's exactly how I would feel too!)
After reading this, I’m struggling to find the evidence that supports the headline. It would help to have an apples- to- apples comparison of approval rating in 2025 vs 2026. Instead this seems to be relying on comparisons of approval with vote share, but isn’t it possible that many 2024 female Trump voters disapproved of him but voted for him nonetheless? If so, that doesn’t really tell us much about the 2026 or 2028 election, does it?
I increasingly feel the current dynamic of leaderless Democrats is not helping. Tbf I think Hakeem Jeffries is going a solid job but minority house leader is not a position of influence…
And while I understand this is a bit of structural problem, I also don’t think everyone involved are not helping. Like
- establishment move to the left policy wise to reject left wing *people*
- left wing factions being dogmatic about everything
- moderate *politicians* either moderate in unpopular way (Fetterman) or nominate old established guy with very misguided idea of moderation. Also way more passionate about bashing left wing *people* than *policy* (like Texeira - I think what he says is overall good but him basically just whining non stop instead of trying to populate his idea or convince people was very puzzling)
I voted for Harris, but I really had to think about it because as a mom, I view the Democrats' cultural agenda as toxic and harmful to families like mine, and I also hate their immigration policy. For Congress, I just look at the individual candidates rather than party.
I can't imagine either party winning on affordability. We've now had inflation and price increases under bother parties. Why would you believe that either party will make things more affordable? (Also, are elected officials even capable of reversing some of these price increases and pain points? Probably not.)
On affordability, I would ask you to take a look at what each party did that spiked inflation. Democrats overestimated the necessary size of spending necessary to avoid a recession, and spent the money on infrastructure and green energy. Republicans spiked inflated by raising taxes and starting a(nother) war in the Middle East they had no plans for or method to end. I think those are different sins.
You forgot the tariffs.
Not surprised. What in the world recommends support of Trump among women? Is it his moral character? His honesty and strength? His kindness and generosity? Or perhaps his policies and governance? Maybe his clever manner of speech and graceful use of the english language--or his clear intellectual acumen? Can anyone name one thing that merits support of Trump? Here is the REAL question: why would women, by and large, as a category of voters, not vote for the Democrats in their towns, states and nationally, running for office in 2026? Whatever the reasons one might scour up--they pale in comparison to the overwhelming task ahead. Vote! Vote the Republicans out. Vote for the Democrats. That is the first order of business in our battle for democracy.
What recommended him to women voters in 2016? Why did women not overwhelmingly vote for Democrats in 2024 after Roe v Wade had been overturned? I hope somebody knows the answer, because some of the demographics Democrats do the most favors for seem to have an inexplicably difficult time identifying which side their bread is buttered on. I guess the answer for 2024 at least was "affordability", as though modern Republicans can grasp basic concepts like "raising taxes on imports raises the prices of those imports" let alone serious economics.
Yeah I've been learning that, at this point the question is half rhetorical, half holding out hope that someone has a solution.
I remember reading a quoted exchange between a man and a feminist activist around the turn of the 20th century. He asked if all women were feminists and she said "Of course not, if that were true we would have killed you all in your sleep centuries ago!"
I guess we could try churning out charismatic speakers who make healthcare subsidies sound brash and cool while also making the whole problem look simpler than it is? Bernie does something like that, but he can't seem to catch on outside of disaffected under-40 progressives.
Assuming this gap between Trump approval and D vote holds, it would be an interesting mirror to the conservative black Dem coalition. To massively overgeneralize, group is bound to the Democratic party by Republican bigotry — what is keeping this group from going Dem?
I was a bit confused about the chart of vote swings that showed -7 for white women and -7 for non-white women, but -8 for women overall. I guess this is probably something involving the margins of error in a randomized survey, and the new survey has more non-white women than the old survey, so that the overall group is even less Trump-voting even than either subgroup.
Does this mean gender polarization will be even more extreme in 2026 compared to before?
Would love a poll that just focused on white women without a college degree. What are their top issues, why have they abandoned Trump, what turns them off about the Democratic Party?