Another California (political) earthquake

A billionaire is poised to become the governor in an “eat the rich” state

Apr 13, 2026

Rep. Eric Swalwell’s campaign for California governor has been suspended in the wake of sexual assault allegations. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

The Race

California is not known for exciting elections for governor. The state’s top-two primary sends the first- and second-place candidates to the general election, regardless of party, which usually means a Republican facing a Democrat anyway.

Given the state’s liberal lean, that means the leading Democrat could just waltz into office. Until Friday, that frontrunner seemed to be Rep. Eric Swalwell, but with new, credible sexual assault allegations surfacing against him, the race has been turned on its head.

The Data

The most recent polling places five candidates ahead of the pack, consistently attracting around double-digit levels of support.

Two are Republicans: businessman and TV host Steve Hilton and Sheriff Chad Bianco.

Three are Democrats: Rep. Swalwell, billionaire activist Tom Steyer, and former Rep. Katie Porter, though there are several more attracting low single-digits.

The race has changed quickly. On the Republican side, Trump’s endorsement of Hilton will likely consolidate the Republican vote behind him like it did for John Cox, giving the TV host a roadmap to the top-two runoff in November.

The only question left is whether Democrats will have one or two candidates advance — in either case, Swalwell won’t be a factor. With allies, staff, and donors alike rapidly fleeing his campaign, any visible path ahead for the former frontrunner to advance has vanished, and he has since suspended his campaign. Polling suggests that two other Democrats stand to disproportionately benefit from this change: Tom Steyer and Katie Porter.

Steyer, a self-funding billionaire who launched a short presidential run in 2020, holds a massive advantage on TV, having invested over $120 million toward his campaign. Until now, that hasn’t yielded dividends in the polls, where he had peaked at 12.8%, but with the businessman holding an extraordinary amount of airtime, this may well change as voters start to tune in.

Steyer has taken a heavy lean into cost-of-living and AI as key messaging priorities, which are two particularly poignant themes in a housing-starved technological powerhouse. Though his profile as a billionaire may be a liability among Democrats (especially if Porter can portray him as out of touch), he should be able to collect more support as the race develops with his unmatched spending.

The other Democrat that could gain in the wake of Swalwell’s implosion is Porter. She’s a known quantity in the state as a consistent progressive voice, but she was not able to pass 20% in the 2024 Senate primary when she was still in Congress (although she shared progressive votes with Barbara Lee).

This year, her endorsement list is a little weaker, and her performance in the polls has been lackluster, dropping to around 9% in late March. There’s no sign of a new, stronger, more effective effort in this year’s campaign, especially without much advertising to speak of.

Between them, Steyer seems a clear favorite.

There is also a lot of online chatter about San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a technocratic favorite who has run a campaign focused almost entirely on housing. The problem with Mahan is that nobody actually knows who he is, other than hyper-engaged voters on Twitter. Polling consistently places him at around 3% to 4%, alongside other minor candidates, and there is little reason to believe he can make enough of a dent in Steyer’s advantage.

Betting markets seem to agree: Kalshi, PredictIt, and Polymarket have Steyer as an emergent favorite, with Mahan and Porter in either second or third place.

With just three weeks until ballots are mailed out, and with Steyer already having a massive advantage on TV, it does not seem like there is any reasonable path toward another Democrat finishing in the top two.

The Call

In a state as large and as expensive as California, Steyer’s name recognition and runaway advertising advantage positions him as the clear favorite. The billionaire appears uniquely positioned to seize on the “standard Democrat” vacuum left by Swalwell, and he stands as the clear favorite as of today.

If 2024 is any guide, Porter’s only realistic shot to advance is to hope that either Steyer’s campaign somehow collapses or dissident Republicans stick with Bianco, each of which would make advancing to November easier. But the fact is, Steyer has limitless financial resources in his arsenal, and no Democrat other than Porter — not even Mahan, whose market odds significantly overstate his strength — currently has the profile, pocketbook, or pitch needed to finish in second.