Democrats look screwed for 2026. They're not.

The party's civil war probably won't keep them from beating Republicans.

U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) speaks at a news conference at the U.S. Capitol Building on Sept. 8, 2025, in Washington, D.C. Jeffries held the news conference to discuss the House Republicans approving a new panel to investigate the January 6th attack. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

The questions I’ve received from Democrats over the last few months generally center around one theme: “How screwed are we?”

It’s hard to blame them. A quick look at the numbers shows that Democrats have never been this heavily underwater with the American public, whether in image or registration. In Gallup’s most recent polling, just 34% of Americans had a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party. Given the nonstop heat the party has taken publicly from its own members, some might wonder: “Who the hell are those 34%?”

But a deeper look at the data suggests Democrats are probably in less trouble than initial appearances let on. Gloomy as the party’s base might feel, all signs point to the party being favored to retake the House of Representatives¹ and make gains in the Senate.

The Democrats of 2025 may be trailing the Democrats of 2017, but they are actually faring better than Republicans were at similar points in 2010, 2014, and 2022. In fact, they lead the generic ballot at a time when the president’s party has typically enjoyed an edge, and have begun rebounding in self-identification nationally.