Welcome back to The Argument’s poll series, where we survey Americans on the issues everyone’s fighting about. The full findings and crosstabs are for paid subscribers below. Our previous surveys have asked about war, elite perception, AI, crime, and much more.
You can see every single poll published by The Argument here.
Our full methodology can be read here.
This is what it looks like when the bottom falls out for the Republican Party.
Across the 14 national polls The Argument has conducted since last year, I have never seen a worse poll for the Republicans than this one. They trail Democrats by 9 percentage points with registered voters on the generic ballot — and by 11 points with the likely electorate. That represents a 13-point swing from 2024.
If you’re searching for ways to explain the blue wave, you don’t have to look too hard. When voters are asked directly which party would do better on the issues that are most important to them, Democrats hold an 11-point edge.
In 2022, it was Republicans who led on this question1 by 11 points, according to Gallup. In 2024, they continued to lead by 5.
A huge portion of this sea change can likely be explained by economic sentiment: Just 19% of the likely 2026 electorate thinks their financial position has gotten better over the last two years, and 42% think it has gotten worse. With a Republican trifecta governing, it’s no surprise that voters now look to the out-party for hope, especially as 63% believe that most Americans are doing worse financially than they were two years ago.
Between this and the myriad of other problems Donald Trump has caused for himself and for Republicans, Democrats now hold the advantage on almost every important issue of the cycle. On the economy, healthcare, foreign policy, and corruption, Democrats hold substantial trust edges.
Voter trust in Republicans has completely evaporated — effectively making some relatively pedestrian numbers for Democrats look phenomenal.
The rest of this post is for paid subscribers: how trust in Republicans collapsed, number by number; why a half-dozen Senate seats Trump carried by double digits are now in play and what voters still hold against Democrats, even in a poll this good for them.
Paid subscribers will also get access to an Election Night livestream and liveblog co-hosted with Nate Silver, Matt Yglesias, Galen Druke, and several other special guests!