Midterm election models — including the model developed by The Argument and Split Ticket — are projecting an extremely strong showing for Democrats this cycle. While some longtime election experts are not as bullish in their subjective evaluations, the numbers are pointing in one clear direction.
Adam Carlson is a founding partner of Zenith Research, a Democratic polling and opinion research firm. He joined The Argument for a Substack Live discussion last week to explain why he feels confident this will be a banner year for Democrats.
“I think earlier in the cycle, I was thinking a lot of things have to go right for Democrats, particularly to flip the Senate. Everything has to kind of line into place. Now I’m almost thinking the opposite, where a lot of things have to go well for Republicans to kind of keep this — what is looking to me like a blue wave — at bay,” Carlson said.
Midterms are (almost) never great for the sitting president’s party, but Carlson thinks Republicans are going the extra mile to ensure big losses by unreservedly yoking themselves to a historically unpopular president. And Trump isn’t doing them any favors by prioritizing pet projects like a White House ballroom. Carlson has found this penchant for vanity is unpopular with voters.
“The worst, most damaging things for politicians [are] things that fit into a pre-existing narrative about them, right? And this fits in so perfectly with Trump,” he said.
Watch the video above for more analysis and predictions about the outcomes of competitive races in Ohio, Georgia, Iowa, and Texas.
