Split Ticket 2026 Midterms Model

House

The race for control of the House leans pretty strongly Democratic this year, with polling showing a blue wave amid Donald Trump’s cratering approvals. Here’s what the map looks like:

Here’s a table of our outputs, with probabilities and modeled margins. You can download the forecast by clicking “Get the Data”:

Here are the probabilities both parties have of winning control of the chamber

Here are our projected seat counts:

Here’s how likely each scenario is:

Senate

The race for control of the Senate is surprisingly competitive; Democrats have a clear shot at seizing an upset victory, despite needing to flip two seats that voted for Trump by double digits. Here’s what the map looks like:

Here’s a table of our outputs, with probabilities and modeled margins. You can download the forecast by clicking “Get the Data”:

Here are the probabilities both parties have of winning control of the chamber:

Here are our projected seat counts:

Here’s how likely each scenario is:

Model Methodology:

First, we constructed a generic ballot average of registered voters, which was weighted for pollster quality according to VoteHub’s pollster scorecard. Next, we calibrated the microdata from all of The Argument/Verasight’s monthly polls in 2026 to this baseline average and then applied a likely voter screen to the survey microdata.

After doing this, we calculated the swing from the presidential margins at a state, regional, and national level, for each demographic — with each geography’s swing weighted for sample size in the composite aggregate. We then constructed a likely electorate at the district and state level alike and applied this demographic-level swing to that electorate, before adjusting each estimate for incumbency and prior candidate overperformance (using Split Ticket’s Wins Above Replacement scores).

This was then blended with two other components: a statistical model trained on the last four election cycles and polling averages internally computed for each House and Senate race. Finally, we conducted a Monte Carlo simulation, with correlated error terms on demographic, state, and national levels.

Aggregated polls were gathered via VoteHub’s polling API. Polling microdata was taken from monthly The Argument/Verasight surveys. Likely voter screens were created through a mixture of data from the Catalist voter file and self-reported voter enthusiasm.