Maine’s Senate race is one of the most competitive in the country. Democrats are seeking to unseat long-time Senator Susan Collins in their bid to take back the Senate.
This year, just two Republican-held seats are up for grabs in states that Trump didn’t win by double-digits: Maine and North Carolina. In North Carolina, Democrats are fielding popular former Gov. Roy Cooper as their candidate, but the situation is decidedly less clear in Maine.
Simply put, the race for the Democratic nomination in Maine is between “weak” and “weaker.” One candidate, incumbent Gov. Janet Mills, is 78 years old and not especially popular. The other, oyster farmer Graham Platner, brings with him a litany of scandals, including a series of controversial social media posts and a Nazi tattoo on his chest.
Ordinarily, it would be unthinkable for either party to bypass a sitting governor in favor of a political novice dogged by controversy. And if Mills and Platner were facing off even two years ago, there’s little doubt that Mills would have cruised to victory. Today, however, her position is perilous.
Polling of the Democratic primary is fairly sparse, but every survey done agrees that Platner is leading; the question is simply whether it’s close (as Quantus and Pan Atlantic indicated), or a blowout (as the University of New Hampshire and Emerson both found).
The enthusiasm for Platner is understandable. Many commentators believe that with his background and image, he’s the rare Democratic candidate who can make significant inroads with men and working-class whites. But to fully understand his momentum despite the scandals, we have to understand his opponent.
Boring doesn’t mean safe
In throwing their weight behind Mills, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and the geriatric Democratic establishment are ignoring their base’s dissatisfaction.
Mills, with her long political career, signals continuity rather than change. Given the party’s abysmal favorables with their own voters, support for Platner is best understood as an act of rebellion, an expression of the belief that it’s time to do something different.
While Platner is certainly…different, his primary advantage over Mills may disappear during a general election.
Platner is virtually guaranteed to face tens of millions of dollars of attack ads that remind voters constantly of his Nazi tattoo and his social media comments on rape. These are beginning to feature heavily in primary discourse, and they will almost certainly impact his ability to cut into Collins’ prior support with independents and moderates.
Platner’s self-presentation as the voice of the working class is a big part of his electability argument.
But the data doesn’t back this up.
Despite his reputation as a working-class whisperer, Platner is actually doing far better with upscale Democratic whites than with non-college Democrats. Each primary poll with regional breakdowns has shown a common theme: Mills does far better among the blue-collar Democrats in the rural north of the state, while Platner cleans up with wealthy, coastal liberals who skew college-educated.
In other words, the data suggests Platner is not the candidate of the working class, but rather of upwardly mobile Mainers who have an idealized working-class aesthetic.
Both parties are fighting for control of the working class. Trump has lost significant ground with this once loyal base of supporters and Democrats are furiously debating whether this demographic is yearning for economic populism, cultural moderation, or some other kind of outsider.
Primary voters in Maine are gambling that a rough-talking oysterman is the key, but despite national media narratives, it looks like Democrats will field a candidate whose appeal is strongest with voters they were already going to win, and whose vulnerabilities are greatest with the voters they actually need.
 | A guest post by
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Platner reminds me of John Fetterman, the darling for Pennsylvania in 2022. Unfortunately he defeated Conor Lamb, who would have been a much better senator for Pennsylvania and in my opinion, for the whole country. I used to live in southern California, where we all got behind Katie Hill for a congressional race. She also had a despicable tattoo, and was a regrettable choice for Congress where her best friend was Matt Gaetz. To quote Rebecca Solnit, an election is a chess move, not a valentine.