Polling is in crisis. In recent weeks, polls have vastly overestimated the support for progressive candidates like Abdul El-Sayed (who won by far less than predicted) and Francesca Hong (who lost despite polls showing a lead). And that’s just elections from this month.
To explain what’s going on, elections whiz Nate Silver joined The Argument for a live conversation Wednesday.
“I don’t want to affect the discourse. I just want to be fucking right,” Silver said.
That’s the entire game. Lakshya Jain, The Argument’s director of political data, debated Silver over his modeling choices (Here’s Silver Bulletin’s “FLIPR” 2026 model and The Argument’s Split Ticket 2026 model).
Silver pointed out that most models, including his own, do not measure how closely candidates align with Trump and his policies. They also largely ignore whether or not a candidate is moderate. Given Trump’s -20 favorability rating and the moderate electoral advantage, these omissions could matter.
Still, none of this has caused Silver’s faith in models to waver.
“People come up and ask me, ‘Well, what’s your real feeling about the race?’” Silver recalled. “Well, that’s the reason why I have a model.”
Watch above to catch the full conversation.
