This presumably causes problems for pollsters that weight on recalled vote and don't have the earlier panel data. I wonder if this phenomenon helps explain some of the swings in pollster accuracy by the newer polling firms that seemed to favor Trump heavily.
I wonder if there's any information on this from the end of Bush's second term. He was so unpopular he pretty much did not campaign for McCain. After the Afghanistan and Iraq wars and then the financial crisis, I don't think I can recall a point when a party was more set on distancing itself from a president. The post-Biden period has been dramatic but it isn't the same.
It’s interesting that there’s a noticeable drift even among people who in theory know they’re on the record on this question from the first survey. I wonder if there’s more change in polls where you can’t check against the baseline, and the respondent knows this.
It probably depends on whether this is intentional dishonesty or misremembering. There have been some primary elections where I was debating a couple candidates for a long time and can’t remember which I actually came down in favor of on the day I cast my ballot. I could imagine that my current feeling about those candidates would shift my memory more in those cases.
If I get a survey once in a while, I may not have any more memory of what I said in the survey than of what I actually did.
It's hard to imagine many people are unsure of who voted for in a presidential race though. It's not a local judgeship. You'd have to be REALLY low information to forget that one.
This presumably causes problems for pollsters that weight on recalled vote and don't have the earlier panel data. I wonder if this phenomenon helps explain some of the swings in pollster accuracy by the newer polling firms that seemed to favor Trump heavily.
I've always wondered about what Trump voters will have to say in 10-20 years. I guess we know now.
I wonder if there's any information on this from the end of Bush's second term. He was so unpopular he pretty much did not campaign for McCain. After the Afghanistan and Iraq wars and then the financial crisis, I don't think I can recall a point when a party was more set on distancing itself from a president. The post-Biden period has been dramatic but it isn't the same.
It’s interesting that there’s a noticeable drift even among people who in theory know they’re on the record on this question from the first survey. I wonder if there’s more change in polls where you can’t check against the baseline, and the respondent knows this.
It probably depends on whether this is intentional dishonesty or misremembering. There have been some primary elections where I was debating a couple candidates for a long time and can’t remember which I actually came down in favor of on the day I cast my ballot. I could imagine that my current feeling about those candidates would shift my memory more in those cases.
If I get a survey once in a while, I may not have any more memory of what I said in the survey than of what I actually did.
It's hard to imagine many people are unsure of who voted for in a presidential race though. It's not a local judgeship. You'd have to be REALLY low information to forget that one.