The California governor’s race has been turned on its head, with former frontrunner Eric Swalwell now likely facing criminal charges after allegations of sexual assault came to light. So what do you get when you combine a self-immolating frontrunner, a billionaire in second place spending over $100 million on TV ads, a contender far in third still recovering from her own flameout, and a handful of candidates lagging behind with low name recognition?
Well, in all likelihood, you get a billionaire governor who just spent over $100 million on TV ads. Lakshya Jain, The Argument director of political data, discussed this probable outcome in a conversation with VoteHub’s Zachary Donnini.
“A lot of people still watch TV. In our polling, over 50% of voters still get their news mostly from TV. Especially older voters are more likely to do that. And that’s who votes in a primary, right? Primaries are a lot older. They’re a lot more engaged,” Lakshya said.
While San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan is getting renewed attention as the billionaire-skeptical state casts about for an alternative, the odds are not in his favor. With the nonpartisan top-two primary election just a month and a half away, his best chance would be to come in second to presumptive frontrunner Tom Steyer and then continue campaigning in the runoff.
But as Donnini explained, that’s not particularly likely now that Donald Trump has endorsed Republican candidate Steve Hilton, shoring up Republican support around a single candidate.
“I think it’s going to be potentially Hilton running in first at this point,” he said.
Watch the full video above for more analysis of the race as it stands, or you can check out our write-up below:
