The Supreme Court unveiled its long-awaited decision on the Voting Rights Act today, striking down a majority-Black district in Louisiana and narrowing the window for such districts to exist moving forward.
Lakshya Jain, The Argument’s director of political data, joined Split Ticket’s Armin Thomas and VoteHub’s Zachary Donnini in a live video chat to discuss how the decision will affect future elections.
Lakshya thinks Democrats should be worried about the long-run implications:
“It’s still very clearly Republican-leaning,” he argued. “I think like a lot of what I’m seeing from Democrats online is just cope about this. They’re like, ‘Oh, it’s not that bad.’ I’m like, ‘No, it’s it’s pretty bad. It’s going to result in the Democrats losing about six to seven House seats. It is just not as bad as losing 10 to 12.”
Armin took a more measured tack:
“I think the decision is not as maximalist as it could have been, right? Everyone was talking about how, overnight, all of these southern legislatures were immediately going to remove all of the Black Democratic minority seats out, but it makes it really, really difficult to enforce.”
Check out the video above to watch their full discussion. Then read Lakshya and Split Ticket’s analysis of how much disruption Democrats can reasonably expect.
