Ever since Donald Trump first became president, people have debated how low his approval numbers could realistically get. But with the war in Iran hiking prices and destroying Trump’s anti-interventionist image, Lakshya Jain, The Argument’s director of political data, is no longer sure that floor even exists.
He joined Split Ticket’s Armin Thomas and VoteHub’s Zachary Donnini on Wednesday to discuss the implications.
“Donald Trump, right now, about 17% of his 2024 voters disapprove of him. And just to be clear, that is absolutely bonkers because you do not get that normally,” said Lakshya. “These are numbers that you had to get to, like, Joe Biden post-debate to hit at.”
Crucially, not only are voters (particularly nonwhite and non-college voters) starting to flee Trump’s coalition, but the usual suspects are increasingly no longer standing up for it.
“Whenever you see really lopsided victories, right? Doug Mastriano, Mark Robinson, Roy Moore, whoever it is, right? A lot of that boils down to the fact that, simply, people, the people who should be defending those candidates can’t or will not,” said Thomas. “And from a mechanical campaign perspective, if Trump continues the war, the tougher and tougher it becomes for all of his people to defend that.
