In 2011 to 2013, Trump repeatedly predicted then-President Obama would attack Iran in order to help himself politically. So it may have come as quite a shock to him that his own attack on Iran has proved so unpopular it could cost him the midterms.
Lakshya Jain, The Argument’s director of political data, joined Split Ticket’s Armin Thomas and VoteHub’s Zachary Donnini on Wednesday to discuss the implications.
“Normies have no appetite for war during times of economic uncertainty and economic upheaval,” argued Lakshya. “And that’s what we are getting right now.”
Indeed, if the war drags on and oil prices keep surging higher, the Democrats’ dubious Senate hopes look more and more realistic. It could even put Texas squarely in play, which we noted two weeks ago was a stretch for Democrats no matter who won the primaries.
“I think the only way that Texas is really competitive, especially with the litany of stuff that’s coming out from James Talarico in terms of past things that he said, is if the economy and the macro climate is actually bad enough that you get Republicans to overlook their base partisanship and say, ‘Screw it, we’re going to vote for a Democrat because it’s the only thing we can do,’” explained Armin.
