Poll volatility rears its head in nearly every midterm, yet, like clockwork, outlier polls spark alarm.
Midterm polls range anywhere from Democrats leading by a whopping 15 points to a nail-biting three. As our Director of Political Data Lakshya Jain likes to remind us: Keep calm and trust the polling average.
The current polling average is slightly below where it was in 2018, but the situation is very different: In 2018, the polling average stayed relatively flat throughout the cycle, whereas in 2026, Democrats have increased their advantage month by month.
Furthermore, this time, Democrats have more of an advantage on issues like cost-of-living and immigration.
“[The] Republican Party has lived for a long time on the bread and butter of economics, right? Like, whatever happened, they were advantaged on three things: crime, economics, immigration. Right now, Trump has done a lot to make immigration not a great issue for Republicans,” said Lakshya in a Substack live conversation with Split Ticket’s Armin Thomas. “And then, on cost of living, it’s outright going negative for the GOP.”
That being said, Democrats could still screw this up. It would be quite unusual if Democrats won senate races in places like Alaska and North Carolina while losing in Michigan, but that is a real possibility if Democrats nominate a historically weak candidate.
“Right now, the polling seems to suggest that Abdul El-Sayed is the weakest of the three candidates for perhaps his ideology being further to the left than the others …this is not a case of Republicans nominating someone like Doug Mastriano or Kerry Lake,” said Armin. “This is actually a rare instance where Republicans have nominated, on paper, what’s a very good candidate.”
Check out the full video above to hear more about what pitfalls await both Democrats and Republicans in the upcoming elections.
