The Split Ticket midterms model is updated daily at 5 p.m. Eastern with the latest polls on our website.
Is 2026 the year Texas finally goes blue?
Readers who remember Beto O’Rourke’s failed 2018 bid to unseat Ted Cruz may have PTSD upon reading that question. But the answer may well be yes: Democrat James Talarico is ahead in almost every single recent survey of Lone Star State voters. Meanwhile, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s campaign has faced serious financial difficulties and has struggled to get on the air, as Republican outside groups remain gun-shy about funding him.
And now, our Split Ticket 2026 midterms model thinks that the race is a toss-up — and gives Democrats a 59% chance of winning the Senate seat in November.1
Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, so why is the race so close? There are two main reasons. The first is that Texas is uniquely poised for a sharp leftward swing in 2026 due to the Democrats gaining asymmetrically with Hispanic voters, who make up 26% of the state’s electorate.
By itself, that brings the race considerably closer than Trump’s R+14 margin in 2024 — in fact, our generic ballot modeling suggests that this is just an R+1 state right now. In other words, an open statewide race in Texas would probably be close even under a generic matchup.
Democrats have essentially nominated their own version of a generic, average Democrat in state Rep. James Talarico.2 Applying our Wins-Above-Replacement (WAR) methodology to the results of the last four Texas Legislature elections, we can see that, relative to other elected Democrats in the state, Talarico is, at best, replacement level.
Make no mistake: Whatever Talarico is doing is still infinitely better than the alternative Democratic voters were presented with, as U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett showed no desire or inclination to reach out to Trump voters in a red state.
But in most years, against most Republicans, Talarico’s run-of-the-mill candidacy still wouldn’t be close to enough. Had Republicans simply stuck to their guns and renominated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, this race wouldn’t have been anything more than a reach for Democrats.
That brings us to the second reason this race is competitive: Republicans made sure this wouldn’t be a generic matchup, because Paxton is not like most Republicans. After an impeachment, a divorce on biblical grounds, and a bruising primary that dragged his favorables through the mud, Paxton may be the weakest candidate in the entire country.
Paxton’s vulnerabilities — which include scandals centered on infidelity and corruption — represent a unique mix of shortcomings that tend to cause massive underperformance. You only need to look back at Graham Platner’s candidacy in Maine to see the damage that infidelity can cause, and electoral history is littered with examples of corruption causing candidates to underperform in federal races. (Just ask TJ Cox, Duncan Hunter, Chris Collins, and Bob Menendez.)
So it’s fair to say that Texas’ 2026 Senate election is everything that its 2018 contest was not. Back then, Beto O’Rourke led barely any polls, and for all of Ted Cruz’s shortcomings, he was an incumbent with an unquestionably stronger profile than Paxton’s. We’ve been studying overperformance data for a long time, and Paxton might be in the bottommost tier of candidate quality. (Think Mark Robinson and Doug Mastriano.)
To win against someone like that, Democrats may not need a major overperformer. They just need someone who can hold serve.
Recommended reading:
Four things I changed my mind on after a year of polling
Biased issue polls by interest groups have polluted the information environment. We wanted to do something different.
The unraveling of Trump's 2024 coalition
There’s good reason to believe that 2026 may be the best year for Democrats since 2018. But no two waves are the same.
While Talarico’s fundraising is certainly excellent, that’s true of almost every battleground Democrat in the country this cycle.
I'm not sure I agree with the characterization of Talarico as a generic Dem. He's the rare politician who can go viral on social media in a way that builds a positive brand for himself beyond his base. It's no accident he was invited onto Joe Rogan's show and performed well there, something most Democrats can't seem to manager. His sincere, religious branding also contrasts well with Paxton.
This kind of skill would not be as relevant in a state house race as it is in a high profile senate race.
Sure, Paxton is a terrible candidate, but it's unclear if a generic Dem would be leading in the polls against him right now.
I guess we'll have to see how things turn out on election day. If Talarico's penchant for attention matters, it will be most impactful in the final months when people are paying closest attention.