Public opinion on AI is a curious phenomenon. Large swaths of voters think the technology could lead to outcomes as severe as mass unemployment or even human extinction. But almost no one seems too concerned about it.
In The Argument’s newest poll, fielded nationally among 3,008 registered voters between May 29 and June 3, 2026, over a quarter, 27%, of voters said it’s likely humanity would go extinct because of AI. At the same time, just 6% listed the technology as one of their two top issues — exactly one-quarter of voters think humanity could go extinct but don’t rank it as an important issue.
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Voters may see worrying possibilities for AI in the abstract, but as long as they don’t see the impact in their own lives, that danger stays theoretical, argued Lakshya Jain, The Argument’s director of political data, and Kobe Yank-Jacobs in a Substack live conversation with The Argument Editor-in-Chief Jerusalem Demsas.
But once a theoretical danger becomes real, public opinion can move quickly. “What do we think changes the salience of this issue in the public mind?” questioned Kobe. “What I worry about is the answer to that question is a crisis.”
For example, voters oppose a ban on automation in most industries — except for software engineering and manufacturing, the two industries that already have the most AI exposure.
Lakshya pointed out a similar dynamic in the wake of Roe v. Wade being overturned.
“Ending Roe v. Wade was actually unpopular, but the polling didn’t really show how bad it would get for Republicans in ‘22 until it actually happened, and then opinion just collapsed. And that’s kind of the way I see this,” Lakshya said.
If AI does cause some of the widespread problems people fear, voters would support far-reaching measures such as a jobs guarantee or a universal basic income, according to our polling. But Jerusalem pointed out that the theoretical nature of this question strikes the other way, too, since people haven’t fully thought through the implications of the policy.
“Obviously it just depends on what people mean by UBI. Like, do you mean we’re giving everyone $50,000 or you’re giving everyone $15,000?” she explained. “We’re in such a liminal space right now; the formation of public opinion on AI is literally happening in real time. So nothing is stable or stagnant.”
Lakshya concurred that it’s too soon to know: “I think anyone who ‘knows’ the political implications is lying, honestly,” he said.
Watch the full video above to hear more of our takes on the latest poll, or dive into the poll results below, with full crosstabs available for paying subscribers:
