Fresh off of last week’s model release, in which our director of political data, Lakshya Jain, argued that The Cook Political Report’s election ratings were strangely pessimistic for Democrats, Cook’s Erin Covey gamely agreed to sort it out live in conversation.
Erin argued that Cook’s ratings, which take into account a large amount of internal and public information alike, are designed to be “stickier,” erring on the side of caution. For instance, in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, both VoteHub and Split Ticket think Republican Congressman Juan Ciscomani is the clear underdog, whereas Cook believes it to be a toss-up. This, Erin argued, is because of the paucity of polling, combined with lack of data on the challenger’s quality.
In another example, Texas’ 35th is rated as a highly competitive race by VoteHub and Split Ticket, while Cook labels it a Likely Republican seat. Erin claimed that the historical lean of this seat (even Beto O’Rourke didn’t win it in 2018) make it a tough lift for Democrats, and she expressed skepticism that it would ever become a true toss-up this cycle.
Lakshya wasn’t fully convinced by the argument, in part because Split Ticket’s model factors in Wins-Above-Replacement and district-specific demographic factors. But the crew did find a point of agreement in New York City, where all three of them agreed that the left was insurgent in the Democratic Party, especially in elections where electability was less relevant (or less clearly defined).
And they all believed that Darializa Avila Chevalier’s election would not be an anchor around swing-seat Democrats. To see why, check out the video above
