Confidence interval

The Democratic Tea Party strikes again

A recording from Lakshya Jain's live video

Jul 2 • Lakshya Jain

33:59

Are forecasters sleeping on Democrats?

We put Cook's election ratings on trial

Jun 24 • Lakshya Jain and Erin Covey

48:15

The experts are wrong about 2026

The Argument's modeling breaks with Cook and Sabato on dozens of races

Jun 17 • Lakshya Jain

Why everyone loves Amazon

Anti-tech populism isn't actually popular

Jun 12 • Milan Singh

NEW POLL: 25% of voters think AI could end humanity and don't care

A recording from Lakshya Jain's live video

Jun 10 • Lakshya Jain

33:33

The biggest issue in American politics doesn't exist yet

AI is everywhere. Does anybody care?

Jun 10 • Lakshya Jain

How would each state vote right now?

Trump approval and generic ballot estimates, by state

Jun 9 • Lakshya Jain

Why centrists can’t win the Democratic presidential primary

The liberal wing of the party is now the majority wing

Jun 8 • Milan Singh

Patience is a virtue and shouldn't be this necessary

A recording from Lakshya Jain's live video

Jun 3 • Lakshya Jain

44:06

How Trump put the Senate into play

Could Democrats do the impossible?

Jun 1 • Lakshya Jain

Is Texas now a toss-up?

A recording from Lakshya Jain's live video

May 27 • Lakshya Jain

50:44

What does a "fair redistricting" even mean?

A recording from Lakshya Jain's live video

May 20 • Lakshya Jain

1:00:13

#nojs-banner { position: fixed; bottom: 0; left: 0; padding: 16px 16px 16px 32px; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background: red; color: white; font-family: -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 13px; line-height: 13px; } #nojs-banner a { color: inherit; text-decoration: underline; } This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please turn on JavaScript or unblock scripts